In this situation, both the scenario (theater nuclear war) and the techniques (information operations) have novel aspects, since the scenario has never occurred, and the techniques have not been used after the employment of nuclear weapons. Meanwhile the US is attempting information operations to de-escalate the conflict, reduce China’s influence, and regain US influence with the protagonists.” China is deploying major forces to its southwest border and engaging in a massive worldwide cyber and media campaign. Theater/tactical nuclear weapons have been used. “The scenario is a war between Pakistan and India in which China is (highly) concerned. Consider the following fictional example of a novel situation: For novel situations or concepts, they are by definition not enough previous real-world cases or events from which to draw conclusions. There are three categories of novel situations that DOD leadership will face, depending on the presence or absence of novelty in the scenario and the warfighting techniques being used.
WARGAMING STRATEGIC WAR HOW TO
The Defense Department must also understand how to use wargaming to explore fundamentally novel situations in the future. History demonstrates the practical ability of wargaming to develop mentally agile officers and assist engaged forces in adapting. officer corps must also be able to devise novel concepts in force structure, technology, processes, and procedures for assessing their deterrence and warfighting value. The Department of Defense (DOD) needs military leaders with the mental agility to outmaneuver enemies in the cognitive domain, to have what the Joint Chiefs of Staff call “intellectual overmatch,” and to have the ability to innovate when faced with completely novel situations created by an adversary.
military leaders have not been educated, trained, or equipped to overcome. Adversaries will deliberately create situations for which U.S. Its adversaries have the opportunity to be more agile and thus are inside the United States’ strategic OODA loop. Critically, the United States’ security trajectory is transparent, providing its adversaries information and time to adapt with cheaper capabilities. military and civilian leaders’ short decision horizons compared to the technology acquisition process timelines and program service life. national security trajectory that lacks agility and resists change. The combination of advantage and sunk cost momentum solidifies a U.S. Long service life locks in high maintenance and upgrades expenditures for many years to justify the initial sunk costs as though they were investments. They can do this precisely because the United States’ most potent power projection and warfighting capabilities are technologically advanced but hugely expensive, with near half-century service lives.Īdvanced technologies give military leaders a warfighting edge while expensive systems grant civilian leaders domestic political advantages. American enemies will transform their force structure, technology, and processes faster than the United States can transform its own. They will not attack strengths they will attack weaknesses at times and places of their choosing and seek to do so in ways for which the DOD is unprepared. The United States’ enemies are smart, dedicated, and determined.
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